NZ Cricket has been in the media a lot recently, and mostly for all the wrong reasons. But putting all of the management issues, captaincy debacle, and world ranking slides to one side for a moment - I have decided to delve deeper into our batsman’s stats, and come up with batting lineups which I think will give us the best chance at success moving forward.
This process began with me looking at Brendon McCullums stats. There has been a lot of talk about where his best position is in the order, his suitability to test match batting, and whether he still commands a pace in the side given that he now only keeps wicket in the t20’s. I looked closely at his averages in the different positions that he has batted across all three formats. The results were very interesting. So I decided to repeat the process with all of the batsmen currently in the Black Caps frame. There are a few things which leaped out at me straight away…
1. We need Taylor and Ryder back ASAP!
2. McCullum definitely commands a place as a specialist opening batsman
3. Most batsman are definitely better at 1 particular position in the batting lineup.
TEST MATCHES:
If we start with the lineup in test matches first, the stats reinforce that Ryder and Taylor are our two heaviest scorers and most consistent. They need to be re-established in the middle order as soon as possible! Taylor averages 47.87 at no. 4 in the lineup, whilst Big Jessie averages 50.62 at 5.
It will be surprising to many that Brendon McCullums best spot is actually at number 2 in the lineup. He should be an opening batsman for NZ - in fact I will go on to show that he should be an opener in all three formats - however, he must never face first up! He has a much better record when he starts at the non-strikers end. I wonder if the team management, or the players themselves look into these kind of stats? Regardless, it’s pretty clear to me that BMac should bat no. 2 in test matches where he is averaging a fairly healthy 40.88.
Now the interesting one is his opening partner. The encumbant across all three formats is Martin Guptill, and although I still think he should be our test, ODI, and t20 no.1 in the batting order, his stats in tests leave a lot to be desired! He only averages 29.82 at no.1, and a few points lower again at no.2. His highest test score of 189 came in one of his 3 test innings batting at no.5, and as such this has boosted his overall average somewhat. With his obvious talent there is no question that he belongs in our top order mix, and despite this relatively low average, is still the best option of those available at no.1. He simply must do better!
The last position in the top 5 goes to the young gun Kane Williamson. Kane finds himself in a similar position to Guptill in that he is the obvious solution for the future, but must lift his average at least 5-10 points. He currently averages 32.35 at number 3, which is statistically his best position, and where he should stay in test matches for NZ for the next decade!
Numbers 6 and 7 in the lineup need to be filled by the wicketkeeper/batsman and another specialist middle order player. Watling currently has the inside running for the keepers job, and currently averages 102 from no.7, so until he plays himself out of the position, or Luke Ronchi demands inclusion, then number 7 is his. For me our number 6 needs to be Dean Brownlie. He averages 49.20 in that position and should be given an extended period without been shifted about in the order.
Waiting in the wings are Peter Fulton, James Franklin, and Daniel Flynn - however statistically they don’t demand a spot in the top 7 currently. If Guptill and Williamson continue to underperform then one or two of these names could come into consideration.
So my test match batting lineup moving forward would be…
1. Martin Guptill (29.82)
2. Brendon McCullum (40.88)
3. Kane Williamson (32.35)
4. Ross Taylor (47.87)
5. Jesse Ryder (50.62)
6. Dean Brownlie (49.20)
7. BJ Watling (102)
If we extrapolate out the averages then our top 7 should score on average 352.74. This average drops markedly with players at other positions in the order. Obviously this is also inflated by Watlings current average at number 7 coming from his only innings at that position of 102. I decided to leave this intact as the hoped for increases in Guptills and Williamsons averages should offset this ;-)
Right now having said all that we need to come up with an order for the test matches against South Africa. We have no Taylor or Ryder on this tour so we need a stop-gap until they are available again. The top three should remain the same, and I would also leave Brownlie and Watling in their positions of 6 and 7 respectively, so as not to mess with the order too much. I would then give Daniel Flynn a shot at number 4, and slot James Franklin in to number 5 where he plays a lot for Wellington. Two metre Peter simply cant squeeze his way in with his woeful record at test match level. This is a golden opportunity for one of the guys on the periphery to put their hands up and stake a claim, but barring an absolute calamity I still hold that my original top 5 above should remain intact for the next 5 years (once they are all available again).
So the test top 7 lineup against South Africa should be…
1. Martin Guptill (29.82)
2. Brendon McCullum (40.88)
3. Kane Williamson (32.35)
4. Daniel Flynn (28.22*)
5. James Franklin (21.21*)
6. Dean Brownlie (49.20)
7. BJ Watling (102)
The overall top 7 average here drops to 303.68. Basically I don’t think we have any chance against South Africa unless our top 3 score heavily in every innings!
* neither Flynn or Franklin have batted in these positions before so I went with their career averages.
ODI TEAM:
The ODI lineup was the easiest of the three to pick. It is the same as the test top 5, except Ryder and Williamson switch positions. The top 4 all average healthily in their best positions, with only Kane Williamson at number 5 needing to improve a few points from his current average of 31.90.
Number’s six and seven also pick themselves surprisingly easy! BJ Watling has been NZ’s form ODI batsman in 2012, and although he hasn’t batted at 7 before, should slot in well to the keeper/batsman role. The surprise at number 6 is Jimmy Franklin, who averages a very healthy 56.66 from that position across 11 innings to date.
So the Black Caps ODI top 7 lineup should be…
1. Martin Guptill (38.68)
2. Brendon McCullum (39.42)
3. Jesse Ryder (48.50)
4. Ross Taylor (41.80)
5. Kane Williamson (31.90)
6. James Franklin (56.66)
7. BJ Watling (36.75*)
*I used Watlings career average as he has never batted at 7.
t20 TEAM:
Although t20 is incredibly important to cricket these days, I still think it should be used to a certain extent as a nursery ground for international cricketers. We have seen this in the last week or so with NZ fielding 4 or 5 newcomers against South Africa - with 2 or 3 players (especially Mitchell McGlenegan and Colin Munro) pushing their case for involvement in other formats. However the stats, and common sense, would suggest that you shouldn’t tinker too much… and with that in mind I still think NZ’s top 4 should remain pretty standard. Only Kane Williamson drops out of the top 5, with positions 5, 6 and 7 open to exciting newcomers, or peripheral players who are pushing for re-inclusion.
My current lineup would look like this…
1. Martin Guptill (avg 78.50, stk rate 125.60)
2. Brendon McCullum (avg 39.83, stk rate 129.19)
3. Jesse Ryder (avg 82, stk rate 127.69)
4. Ross Taylor (avg 24, stk rate 116.70)
5. James Franklin
6. Colin Munro
7. Jimmy Neesham